is it the time to invest in Asia-Pacific real estate?
The global real estate capital market grew last year to hit US$12 trillion, but the subprime crisis has thrown a spanner in the works. . q; C0 W9 E' N, `7 y, S
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Investors are finding it tough, with liquidity drying up, yields compressing, and valuations in the US and UK dipping.
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8 p# V, Y8 J) H; dHowever, some analysts said that opportunities remain and may even grow, as markets approach fair value. They noted that demographics in emerging Asia also support long-term investment horizons. % ?2 v, S& N9 l9 E4 M
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Property prices around the world have suffered as investors attempt to ride out the current uncertainty in the market by holding back funds.
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- ?+ a$ {; w: _7 w8 X" vOng Choon Fah, executive director and head, SEA Consulting and Research, DTZ, said: "Because there is so much uncertainty around the markets - financial markets, capital markets, equity markets - people don't really know what to think, and when one is confused, people don't want to make major decisions." 7 @# k3 H( a9 F9 {
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Property watchers said that yields and prices are expected to correct further on the downside in the year ahead - with some sectors hit more than others. ( ^! n: X8 d4 h C! z) C8 v
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David Green-Morgan, Asia-Pacific research director, DTZ, said: "Potentially, industrial and retail sectors may correct more than the commercial office sectors, which tends to be more resilient... the downside tends to be less in those areas."
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3 d" S, l) M# j& N1 O4 XDTZ said that the one bright spot in the real estate market lies in Asia-Pacific, where economies have held up comparably well so far.
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Mr Green-Morgan said: "At the moment, it is holding up quite well and that is due to the fact that there is a much bigger domestic market in Asia-Pacific than in previous slowdowns, and also because there is much more wealth in Asia-Pacific, than historically."
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& g2 N5 ]" ^, { F! t4 B: JDTZ said this has kept overall property prices reasonably firm as prospects for capital growth dry up. ; ~1 f1 G; e7 b/ e2 L& s
2 }. d4 E2 y& E! qThe focus is now on occupier fundamentals. And for this, DTZ's top picks currently include resorts in Thailand's leisure sector, and its serviced residences.
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' n1 L* P( U7 ~' }/ s2 ?It also likes emerging markets such as Vietnam - where demographics are a key factor.
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3 r0 C5 n9 ]5 |4 t$ S4 y# CMs Ong said: "Although Vietnam has its own set of problems, if you look beyond the immediate future, it has a huge population... it has one of the longest coastlines in Asia. So again there are opportunities there."
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: L) ?* d }, ~6 B- z" wDTZ said that another area of interest is Indonesia, where residential prices have come off highs, coupled with a growth in infrastructure projects. - CNA/ms